Current Prices Paid; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia (PPCDFSA066MSFRBPHI) | FRED | St. Louis Fed

Rows: 702
Columns: 2
Data range: 1968-05-01 to 2026-10-01
Auto-refresh: Re-checks its source every 14 days
Last refreshed with new data: 2026-10-27

Graph and download economic data for Current Prices Paid; Diffusion Index for Federal Reserve District 3: Philadelphia (PPCDFSA066MSFRBPHI) from May 1968 to Jun 2026 about FRB PHI District, diffusion, paid, indexes, price, and USA.

AI analysis

Dataset Analysis: Philadelphia Fed Prices Paid Diffusion Index

1. Dataset Overview & Value

This dataset (PPCDFSA066MSFRBPHI) is a monthly diffusion index tracking "Current Prices Paid" from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's regional manufacturing survey, sourced via the St. Louis Fed's FRED API (fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv). As a diffusion index, it measures the net percentage of surveyed firms reporting rising input prices versus falling prices — a leading indicator of regional inflationary pressure in the manufacturing sector. The data spans an unusually long horizon (May 1968 to Jun 2026, 698 monthly observations), giving it substantial value for long-run correlation and business-cycle studies, including comparisons across multiple recession/expansion periods. Because it originates from FRED, a well-vetted aggregator of authoritative economic series, freshness and revision practices are generally reliable, though users should confirm whether the "2026" endpoint reflects actual reported data or a forecast/placeholder extension.

2. Data Quality Observations

Data quality appears strong at first glance: zero null cells across both columns and 698 distinct, fully-populated date values (no missing timestamps). However, the duplicate-row count is listed as pending recomputation ("Phase D — recomputed against Parquet"), so uniqueness cannot yet be fully confirmed — this should be validated before using the dataset as an authoritative join source. Additionally, the sample data rows are not yet available (0 rows shown, "pending Phase D R2/Parquet wire-up"), meaning spot-checking actual values for formatting issues, sign conventions, or encoding problems isn't currently possible from this profile alone.

3. Key Column Distributions

The core value column, PPCDFSA066MSFRBPHI, ranges from -35.5 to 91.1, with a mean of 29.44 and median of 26.15 — the mean sitting above the median suggests a mild right skew, confirmed by the skewness statistic of 0.283 (light positive skew). The interquartile range (Q1=14.9, Q3=43.975) shows that the middle 50% of observations cluster in solidly positive territory, indicating price increases are reported more often than decreases across the historical sample. Only 4 outliers were flagged despite the wide range, suggesting extreme readings (likely tied to inflation shocks such as the 1970s energy crisis or 2021-2022 post-pandemic inflation surge) are rare but real. With 452 distinct values across 698 rows, the index shows meaningful but not excessive repetition, consistent with a bounded diffusion index that recycles similar readings during stable periods.

4. Recommended Join Keys

The observationdate column (Date type, 0 nulls, 698 distinct values) is the clear and only sensible join key. Since this is monthly data, correlation studies should align other datasets to the first-of-month convention used here, and consider forward/backward-fill or resampling logic when joining against weekly, quarterly, or daily series.

5. Suggested Pairings for Correlation Analysis

This series pairs naturally with other Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey components (New Orders, Shipments, Employment, Prices Received diffusion indexes) to build a fuller regional manufacturing picture. For broader macro correlation, consider: national CPI/PPI (to test regional leading-indicator properties), PCE inflation, ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid (national analog), producer input costs (e.g., commodity/oil price indexes), Federal Funds Rate/monetary policy stance, and other regional Fed surveys (Empire State, Richmond, Dallas, Kansas City) to examine geographic divergence or convergence in inflation expectations.

Columns

observation_date (date)
PPCDFSA066MSFRBPHI (decimal)